Quotera

UN Analysis

UN WPP 2024, medium variant — single ages grouped into quota bands. 2027 vs 2026, 33 operational + 19 Eurostat markets, 16+.

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Summary of highlights (2027 vs 2026)

Biggest movers (absolute)
  • 16+ — largest increases: India (+15,566,192), China (+5,856,637), Nigeria (+4,110,286); largest decreases: Japan (-382,704), Germany (-160,205), Italy (-75,875).
  • 16-64 — largest increases: India (+11,117,114), Nigeria (+3,896,808), Indonesia (+1,722,144); largest decreases: Germany (-540,237), Japan (-413,267), South Korea (-384,152).
Biggest movers (% y-o-y)
  • 16+ — steepest declines: Bulgaria (-0.66%), Serbia (-0.60%), Romania (-0.43%); highest growth: Nigeria (+2.94%), Kenya (+2.76%), Ghana (+2.45%).
  • 16-64 — steepest declines: Hong Kong (-1.52%), Taiwan (-1.43%), South Korea (-1.10%); highest growth: Nigeria (+2.95%), Kenya (+2.69%), Ghana (+2.26%).
Age cohort shifts
  • Sharpest band declines: Singapore 16-24 (-7.82%), Hong Kong 25-34 (-5.46%), Poland 25-34 (-4.05%), Greece 35-44 (-3.72%), Vietnam 25-34 (-3.39%).
Hidden internal reshuffling
  • Austria: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down · Belgium: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down · Brazil: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44 down · China: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down · Czech Republic: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down · Denmark: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down · France: 16+ up, 35-44, 45-54 down · Hong Kong: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44 down · New Zealand: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down · Norway: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down · South Korea: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down · Spain: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down · Sweden: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down · Switzerland: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44 down · Thailand: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down · Turkey: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44 down · UK: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down
Rapid ageing wave (65+ up, 55-64 down)
  • Austria: 65+ +2.59%, 55-64 -0.90% · Belgium: 65+ +2.10%, 55-64 -0.33% · Bulgaria: 65+ +0.20%, 55-64 -0.10% · Canada: 65+ +3.09%, 55-64 -1.33% · Croatia: 65+ +0.96%, 55-64 -1.33% · Germany: 65+ +1.87%, 55-64 -2.09% · Hong Kong: 65+ +4.06%, 55-64 -1.22% · Netherlands: 65+ +2.46%, 55-64 -0.33% · Serbia: 65+ +0.55%, 55-64 -0.81% · Taiwan: 65+ +3.77%, 55-64 -0.89%
Fast-ageing markets
  • Colombia: 65+ +5.15% · Ghana: 65+ +5.35% · Saudi Arabia: 65+ +5.54%
Broad working-age decline
  • Serbia: all bands 16-54 falling · South Korea: all bands 16-54 falling · Thailand: all bands 16-54 falling

Flags follow the patterns in the analysts' past reports: top 3 movers (absolute and %), age-group swings of ±3% or more (noting male/female splits of 1+ pts), hidden reshuffling, ageing wave, 65+ growth of 5%+ and broad decline. Click a market to see its single-age figures.

Market16-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+65-7475+16-6416+Flags
Argentina+0.8%-0.1%+0.8%+1.9%+1.6%+2.0%+1.4%+2.8%+0.9%+1.1%
Australia+2.0%-1.1%+0.7%+0.7%+1.0%+2.9%+2.1%+3.9%+0.6%+1.1%
Austria+0.7%-3.0%-0.2%-0.3%-0.9%+2.6%+3.8%+1.3%-0.8%+0.1%
25-34 swing -3.01%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down
Ageing wave: 65+ +2.59%, 55-64 -0.90%
Belgium+1.8%-1.3%-0.0%-0.4%-0.3%+2.1%+2.0%+2.3%-0.1%+0.5%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down
Ageing wave: 65+ +2.10%, 55-64 -0.33%
Brazil-1.2%-0.5%-0.7%+2.0%+1.2%+4.1%+3.4%+5.3%+0.1%+0.7%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44 down
Bulgaria+0.8%-3.2%-1.7%-0.6%-0.1%+0.2%-0.7%+1.3%-1.0%-0.7%
Steepest % fall 16+ (-0.66%)
25-34 swing -3.17%
Ageing wave: 65+ +0.20%, 55-64 -0.10%
Canada+0.5%-0.2%+1.0%+1.2%-1.3%+3.1%+2.3%+4.1%+0.2%+0.9%
Ageing wave: 65+ +3.09%, 55-64 -1.33%
Chile-0.5%-1.7%+1.7%+1.0%+1.3%+3.6%+2.8%+4.6%+0.3%+0.9%
China+1.1%-2.6%-0.5%-1.7%+3.3%+2.8%+0.3%+7.0%-0.0%+0.5%
Top 3 rise 16+ (+5,856,637)
55-64 swing +3.28%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down
Colombia-1.7%-0.1%+1.9%+2.2%+1.2%+5.1%+4.6%+6.1%+0.6%+1.2%
Fast ageing: 65+ +5.15%
Croatia+0.3%-1.0%-2.5%-0.1%-1.3%+1.0%+0.3%+1.9%-1.0%-0.4%
Ageing wave: 65+ +0.96%, 55-64 -1.33%
Czech Republic+2.4%-3.1%-1.1%-0.7%+2.2%+0.6%-1.9%+3.4%-0.1%+0.1%
25-34 swing -3.11%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down
Denmark+0.2%-0.6%+2.0%-2.0%+0.4%+1.6%+1.2%+2.0%-0.0%+0.4%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down
Egypt+2.2%+1.1%+1.6%+3.0%+2.5%+4.4%+3.9%+6.0%+2.0%+2.2%
45-54 swing +3.03%
France+1.0%+0.8%-1.2%-1.0%+0.3%+1.7%+0.4%+3.1%-0.0%+0.5%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 35-44, 45-54 down
Germany+0.8%-2.1%-0.7%-0.4%-2.1%+1.9%+2.6%+1.1%-1.1%-0.2%
Top 3 fall 16+ (-160,205)
Top 3 fall 16-64 (-540,237)
Ageing wave: 65+ +1.87%, 55-64 -2.09%
Ghana+2.0%+1.9%+2.1%+3.5%+2.7%+5.3%+6.3%+3.1%+2.3%+2.5%
Highest % growth 16+ (+2.45%)
Highest % growth 16-64 (+2.26%)
45-54 swing +3.49%
Fast ageing: 65+ +5.35%
Greece+1.7%-0.2%-3.7%-0.8%+0.8%+0.9%+1.0%+0.8%-0.5%-0.1%
35-44 swing -3.72%
Hong Kong+0.2%-5.5%-1.7%+0.5%-1.2%+4.1%+3.1%+5.3%-1.5%+0.0%
Steepest % fall 16-64 (-1.52%)
25-34 swing -5.46% (F -6.32%, M -4.51%)
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44 down
Ageing wave: 65+ +4.06%, 55-64 -1.22%
Hungary+0.2%-2.4%-0.7%-0.9%+1.9%-0.1%-2.0%+2.3%-0.4%-0.3%
India-0.6%+0.8%+1.6%+2.4%+2.4%+4.0%+3.2%+5.6%+1.1%+1.4%
Top 3 rise 16+ (+15,566,192)
Top 3 rise 16-64 (+11,117,114)
Indonesia+1.0%+0.2%-0.1%+1.4%+2.5%+4.3%+4.7%+3.4%+0.9%+1.3%
Top 3 rise 16-64 (+1,722,144)
Ireland+2.4%+2.3%-2.6%+1.4%+2.0%+2.9%+2.3%+3.7%+1.0%+1.4%
Israel+2.5%+1.5%+0.6%+1.1%+2.6%+2.2%+0.3%+4.4%+1.6%+1.7%
Italy+0.3%-1.1%-1.4%-2.6%+0.5%+1.7%+2.1%+1.2%-0.9%-0.1%
Top 3 fall 16+ (-75,875)
Japan-0.0%+0.1%-2.2%-3.1%+2.6%+0.1%-1.8%+1.3%-0.6%-0.4%
Top 3 fall 16+ (-382,704)
Top 3 fall 16-64 (-413,267)
45-54 swing -3.09%
Kenya+2.1%+2.8%+2.6%+3.5%+3.7%+4.2%+5.3%+1.8%+2.7%+2.8%
Highest % growth 16+ (+2.76%)
Highest % growth 16-64 (+2.69%)
45-54 swing +3.52%
55-64 swing +3.69%
Malaysia-0.2%+0.3%+1.3%+4.1%+2.2%+4.8%+3.9%+6.6%+1.3%+1.7%
45-54 swing +4.06%
Mexico-0.0%+0.4%+1.5%+1.2%+2.6%+4.1%+4.1%+4.2%+1.0%+1.4%
Morocco+1.4%-0.4%+0.8%+2.2%+1.7%+4.6%+3.7%+6.4%+1.0%+1.4%
Netherlands-0.6%+0.3%+1.5%-1.3%-0.3%+2.5%+2.1%+2.9%-0.1%+0.6%
Ageing wave: 65+ +2.46%, 55-64 -0.33%
New Zealand+1.6%-1.5%+1.8%-0.4%+0.2%+3.1%+2.6%+3.7%+0.3%+0.9%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down
Nigeria+3.3%+3.2%+1.7%+3.2%+3.2%+2.8%+2.9%+2.7%+2.9%+2.9%
Top 3 rise 16+ (+4,110,286)
Highest % growth 16+ (+2.94%)
Top 3 rise 16-64 (+3,896,808)
Highest % growth 16-64 (+2.95%)
16-24 swing +3.29%
25-34 swing +3.19%
45-54 swing +3.19%
55-64 swing +3.23%
Norway+0.9%-1.4%+0.8%-0.6%+1.4%+2.2%+1.4%+3.1%+0.2%+0.7%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down
Philippines+0.8%+0.9%+2.4%+2.3%+2.2%+4.6%+3.9%+6.5%+1.6%+1.8%
Poland+2.0%-4.1%-2.4%+2.3%+0.1%+1.4%-1.1%+4.9%-0.5%-0.0%
25-34 swing -4.05%
Portugal+0.3%-0.0%-2.5%-1.4%+0.3%+1.5%+0.6%+2.3%-0.7%-0.1%
Romania+0.5%-1.5%-2.0%-1.5%+2.3%-0.3%-2.5%+2.6%-0.5%-0.4%
Steepest % fall 16+ (-0.43%)
Saudi Arabia+2.4%+0.8%+1.1%+3.7%+2.7%+5.5%+6.5%+3.4%+1.8%+2.0%
45-54 swing +3.70% (F +4.59%, M +3.26%)
Fast ageing: 65+ +5.54%
Serbia-1.3%-1.5%-1.7%-0.1%-0.8%+0.5%-2.0%+4.0%-1.0%-0.6%
Steepest % fall 16+ (-0.60%)
Ageing wave: 65+ +0.55%, 55-64 -0.81%
Broad decline: all bands 16-54 falling
Singapore-7.8%-0.3%+2.9%+1.7%+1.1%+4.2%+2.9%+6.3%-0.3%+0.5%
16-24 swing -7.82% (F -6.98%, M -8.54%)
South Africa+1.5%-1.4%+1.3%+3.8%+1.1%+3.7%+2.9%+5.4%+1.0%+1.3%
45-54 swing +3.76%
South Korea-0.6%-2.5%-1.6%-1.0%+0.1%+4.6%+4.9%+4.1%-1.1%+0.3%
Top 3 fall 16-64 (-384,152)
Steepest % fall 16-64 (-1.10%)
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down
Broad decline: all bands 16-54 falling
Spain+1.3%-0.8%-2.6%-1.2%+1.2%+2.3%+2.8%+1.9%-0.5%+0.2%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down
Sweden+2.5%-2.3%+1.9%-0.3%+1.1%+1.3%+0.7%+1.8%+0.5%+0.7%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down
Switzerland+1.7%-2.5%-0.3%+0.2%+0.0%+2.8%+3.5%+2.1%-0.2%+0.5%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44 down
Taiwan-2.7%-2.6%-3.1%+1.1%-0.9%+3.8%+1.9%+6.9%-1.4%-0.2%
Steepest % fall 16-64 (-1.43%)
35-44 swing -3.13%
Ageing wave: 65+ +3.77%, 55-64 -0.89%
Thailand-0.6%-1.2%-1.0%-0.7%+0.5%+4.0%+3.4%+4.8%-0.6%+0.3%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 down
Broad decline: all bands 16-54 falling
Turkey-0.9%-0.3%-0.2%+2.4%+1.3%+3.9%+3.0%+5.3%+0.4%+0.9%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 35-44 down
UAE-0.2%+2.5%+2.2%-0.3%+0.7%+4.9%+5.2%+4.4%+1.5%+1.6%
UK+2.7%-1.0%+0.7%-0.3%+0.7%+1.8%+1.9%+1.7%+0.5%+0.8%
Hidden reshuffle: 16+ up, 25-34, 45-54 down
Vietnam+2.2%-3.4%+0.8%+1.9%+1.8%+4.9%+4.9%+4.9%+0.5%+1.1%
25-34 swing -3.39%